14 January 2008

no dice


Hillary Clinton's roll of the racial dice has come up snake eyes. Barack Obama has taken the "high road," again refusing to wallow in the muck:

Obama: "I think that I may disagree with Senator Clinton or Senator Edwards on how to get there, but we share the same goals. We're all Democrats....We all believe in civil rights. We all believe  in equal rights. We all believe that regardless of race or gender that people should have equal opportunities....They are good people, they are patriots. They are running because they think they can move this country to a better place." 

The contrast in styles is real and has substantive consequences. The Clinton campaign is more comfortable with slash and burn politics; it thrives on attack and counter-attack. But this style requires someone to play the role of adversary. In the 1990s, the adversary was the Republican party and a vast conservative "conspiracy." Such existential foes made for existential battles, culminating in the impeachment of Bill Clinton. The problem the Clintonistas face now is that Obama refuses (more or less) to play the adversarial role. He tends to deflect the blow rather than responding in kind. Hence, the Clinton campaign is force to fight a phantom and here the strategy flounders. My sense is that Clinton would be a formidable and relentless candidate in face of a Republican in the fall election, in particular because Republicans can be expected to fire all their remaining ammunition at her. This is the preferred terrain for Clinton; two military formations meeting on a single field of battle, face to face. As the presidential nominee, Obama would have to remain above it all without appearing aloof; the goal would be to demonstrate the desperation of the Republicans by refusing to answer every volley; political honour would then hopefully prevail over an extravagant display of arms; in the end, the beefy class ruffians would succumb to the compelling nobility of skinny class president. I am not sure this style would prevail, but clearly Obama has no desire to engage in gladiator politics.

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