the republican brand

The McCain campaign (if not John McCain himself) is as emotionally stable as Alex Rodriguez when he's in a room with Madonna. It's (he's) angry and resentful at one moment, then respectful and civil at another. Which McCain will show up at the final debate? Palin is comfortable with an attacking style and doesn't seem worried about the consequences (as her actions and inactions concerning the Alaskan trooper indicate). She is an appealing attack dog, whereas McCain comes off as a grumpy old man when he goes negative. For that reason, I suspect McCain will not try to ayersize Obama Wednesday night. If he does, it will be the final misstep in a campaign which will become the textbook on how not to run for president.

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It has to be dawning on McCain, the son and grandson of four-star Navy admirals, that he has a good chance to lose the race to Obama, raised by a single mother (who was an anthropologist). Can an October Surprise such as the capture of Osama Bin Laden reverse McCain's fortunes?

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If Obama-Biden are elected I think the low level political slime artists will slink back to their safe houses: talk radio and think tanks like the Heritage Foundation. In the face of a national economic emergency, FoxSpace might change its tune if Rupert Murdoch's rapprochement with Obama holds and Roger Ailes is canned (not a likely scenario though). However, in the darkness of political defeat, a dozen foetid conspiracy theories take root. What is remarkable about the chattering class of Republicans is how they spent the 1990s trying to undo the outcome of two presidential elections. Will they spend their precious resources to undo this election if it doesn't go their way? 

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The Republican party would face a serious choice in the wake of a defeat. Does it become the party of Palinoconservatives, i.e.,  a party of anti-intellectualism, an anti-government party that gives people reason to be anti-government when Republicans are in charge, a party of unrealistic libertarianism, a party of moral minoritarians whose unchristian behavior belies their professed faith? Or does it move towards the center and reclaim for the Republican brand a more rational and less apocalyptic version of conservatism?

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Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh will continue to entertain their audiences and will be well compensated for it. But they don't rise to the level of significance that someone like Father Coughlin did during the 1930s. I think more serious opposition to an Obama presidency could emerge from House Republicans (as it did in the 1990s). The Republicans also have two congenial figures to draw on to rehabilitate their brand: Huckabee and Gingrich (whose fall from grace seems to have been forgotten).

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Since economic issues will be central for the foreseeable future, I'd expect the moral minoritarians (i.e., James Dobson and Tony Perkins) to become increasingly irrelevant. Unfortunately for Obama (if he's elected), the economic reality he'll face is being shaped by Bush and Paulson.  

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Alaska is a tiny state: population 670,000. Wasilla, AK is a blip on the Google Earth screen: population 9,780. 62,000 people live in my neighborhood; 2.5 million in my borough. Palin's "executive experience" doesn't qualify her to run a neighborhood block association much less the country if McCain were stricken.  Palin will have to add some substance to her record to be viable as a national candidate in 2012 (obviously she feels -- erroneously -- that running the Congress as vice-president would help on that front). She will remain viable within the Republican party no matter what she does. Every Republican fundraiser will want Palin on their program. However, if she remains governor (i.e., survives the abuse of power charges) she won't enter the 2012 Republican primary season in the same position that Hillary Clinton did in 2007, as the presumptive favorite. I expect Huckabee, Gingich, and Romney to be back. Palin would face challenges from these types even if she is the sitting vice-president.