as the polls turn, or: what would a McCain presidency entail

According to the polls, Obama is losing support from "white" women to McCain. I wonder if those Democrats who have switched to McCain have pondered a McCain Presidency. What exactly would a McCain presidency entail anyway?

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The only original "idea" (i.e., something that diverges from the Bush presidency) I've heard from him is the "League of Democracies", which I suspect would turn out to be very much like the "Coalition of the Willing" (which turned out to be not much of a coalition and mostly unwilling). It seems very unlikely that European powers (the UK included) who are committed to existing international institutions, namely, the UN, the International Court, the Geneva Conventions, etc., would sign on to such a thinly veiled end run around such institutions. Hence, this "League" would likely be staffed by nations like Poland and Georgia (which, according to McCain's Vice President, should gain NATO membership) who will claim a larger share of American foreign aid largesse (such as the 1 billion dollars that suddenly materialized for Georgia recently). The threat to boot Russia from the G8 is a non-starter as well. McCain says he'll "win" the war in Iraq, but doesn't know when that will happen. How long will a Congress controlled by Democrats continue to allow American taxpayers to foot the bill? I suspect McCain will be on a short leash in Mesopotamia. Eventually, McCain would have to make good on his threat to bomb Iran ("Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" McCain sang to the tune of "Barbara Ann") if the nuclear program isn't suspended, otherwise the USA will look weak. Who knows how much collateral damage will be inflicted if this comes to pass.

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In terms of domestic politics, as a lame duck in his only term, McCain could feel liberated and engage with his alleged maverick side. That would mean true bipartisanship with congressional houses controlled by Democrats. This would bode well for immigration reform (McCain could tell nativist Tancredoites and the vigilantes patrolling the Mexican border to stuff it). It could mean he proposes non-activist (i.e., non-Scalian, non-Federalist Society) jurists for appointment to the Supreme Court. It could mean he reverses his support for the Bush tax cuts.

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What is more likely is that McCain's non-maverick side will win out. As his selection of Palin indicates, he feels obligated to the theocratic fringe of the Republican base, as well as the Reaganite dead-enders. This means he'd propose jurists for the Supreme Court who pass the Perkins-Dobson-Norquist-LaHaye-Weyrich litmus test. He'll waste time trying to jam through more tax cuts to the highest income bracket and offer school vouchers as his major social policy initiative. He'd speak tendentiously about the evils of "gay marriage" and the Darwinian threat to God without doing anything about it (or perhaps the culture warrior dossiers would be assigned to the Vice President's office). Energy policy will continue to be directed by the same people Dick Cheney relied upon during the Bush years.

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On the positive side (yes there is one!), Democrats will likely gain more seats in the House and Senate during the 2010 midterm elections as a consequence of a McCain presidency.