permanent campaign

Hillary is back, Barack still leads, when will it end? Clinton is making her claim on the nomination more effectively than Obama in the big states. Why? Maybe people in these states, especially the unionist, labouring classes, identify with the "I'm in your corner, fighting" assertions offered by Clinton. They are in no mood for the pragmatic idealism of Obama, preferring the pragmatic realism of the senator from New York. But can either candidate be effective if and when they occupy the Oval Office?

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Both Clinton and Obama would face difficulties once in office. Unless the Democrats can secure 60 votes in the Senate, a Democrat President will struggle to put through major proposals (such as universal health care). My hunch is that Republicans would dig in firmly against Clinton (the "base" will demand it). Sure, she'll "fight fight fight" for her ideas, but I sense a repeat of 1993 is in the offing for her centerpiece program on health care. Obama might be able to use the "bully pulpit" of the presidency more effectively than Clinton, which would put pressure on recalcitrant republicans not to filibuster legislation or attach poison pill amendments.

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Clinton, now in desperation mode, has found her "voice" again, which is negative. She's figured out a way to attack Obama's "character" without using the "racial profiling" tactic. For whatever reason, Obama hasn't figured out how to reply in kind while remaining on his theme of a "new politics." The easiest route is to turn Clinton's new claim of "electability" against McCain into an issue. For example, Obama's surrogates should insist on the release of Clinton's tax records: without having transparency, there may be fodder that McCain could exploit in the fall. Obama should question the premise that he would not win the big states in the fall. Is there any way that California or New York would suddenly vote republican just because Clinton is not the nominee? Finally, Obama can make the case that he can put into play those "purple" states that would not fall into the Clinton column. Finally, Obama has to put Clinton on her heels in any future debate, especially on the universal health care plan. But he'll need new talking points which basically suggest that a republican controlled senate won't pass her plan but will pass his.

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For her part, Clinton  must decide whether she is willing to risk the alienation of the most fervent Obama supporters for the sake of achieving the nomination. The fact that she's even crossing over the line means she must believe there is no way a Democrat can lose in the fall. This was the same belief the Democrats held in 2000 and 2004. For now, it appears Clinton is on a "win the battle, lose the war" path.